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Biomarin Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Biomarin Pharmaceutical's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Biomarin Pharmaceutical's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Biomarin Pharmaceutical's Predictability Rank falls into.



Biomarin Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Biomarin Pharmaceutical's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Biomarin Pharmaceutical Business Description

Biomarin Pharmaceutical logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Address
770 Lindaro Street, San Rafael, CA, USA, 94901
BioMarin's focus is on rare-disease therapies. Genzyme (now part of Sanofi) markets Aldurazyme through its joint venture with BioMarin, and BioMarin markets Naglazyme, Vimizim, and Brineura independently. BioMarin also markets Kuvan and Palynziq to treat the rare metabolic disorder PKU (in addition to long-standing U.S. rights, BioMarin has reacquired international rights for Kuvan and Palynziq from Merck KGaA). BioMarin's Roctavian (hemophilia A gene therapy) and vosoritide (treatment for achondroplasia) are poised to potentially launch in the 2021-22 timeframe.
Executives
Ajer Jeffrey Robert officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. 105 DIGITAL DRIVE NOVATO CA 94949
Heron Elaine J director 6 STONEGATE RD PONTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Pyott David E I director C/O ALLERGAN 2525 DUPONT DRIVE IRVINE CA 92612
Grey Michael G director C/O SGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 10505 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Fuchs Henry J officer: President, Worldwide R&D C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. 105 DIGITAL DRIVE NOVATO CA 94949
Acosta Andrea officer: GVP, Chief Accouning Officer C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. 770 LINDARO ST SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Dere Willard H director ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Lawlis V Bryan director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: LAWLIS V BRYAN a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Anderson Elizabeth M director 10 FINDERNE AVENUE BUILDING 10 BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Hombach Robert J. director C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Slamon Dennis director 770 LINDARO STREET SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Meier Richard A director 1700 E ST ANDREW PLACE SANTA ANA CA 92705
Bienaime Jean Jacques director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 925 PAGE MILL ROAD PALO ALTO CA 94304
Guyer Charles Greg officer: EVP, Chief Technical Officer C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. 770 LINDARO ST. SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Mueller Brian officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. 105 DIGITAL DRIVE NOVATO CA 94949

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Headlines

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