C.H. Robinson Worldwide (C.H. Robinson Worldwide) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C.H. Robinson Worldwide (C.H. Robinson Worldwide) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc (NAS:CHRW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CH1A:Germany

Address

14701 Charlson Road, Eden Prairie, MN, USA, 55347-5088

Website

https://www.chrobinson.com

C.H. Robinson is a top-tier non-asset-based third-party logistics provider with a significant focus on domestic freight brokerage (about 60% of 2022 net revenue), which reflects mostly truck brokerage but also rail intermodal. Additionally, the firm operates a large air and ocean forwarding division (30%), which has grown organically and via tuck-in acquisitions over the years. The remainder of revenue consists of the European truck-brokerage division, transportation management services, and a legacy produce-sourcing operation.

Executives

Winship Henry Ward Iv	director	PO BOX 8614, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
David P Bozeman	director, officer: President & CEO	100 NE ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Angela K. Freeman	officer: Vice President-Human Resources	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55437
Michael John Short	officer: President, Global Forwarding	14701 CHARLESON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Mac S Pinkerton	officer: Pres. of North America Trans.	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55330
James J. Barber	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Jordan T Kass	officer: President, Managed Services	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Henry J Maier	director	1000 FEDEX DRIVE, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Michael Paul Zechmeister	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O UNITED NATURAL FOODS, INC., 313 IRON HORSE WAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02908
Chris Obrien	officer: Vice President	8100 MITCHELL RD, STE 200, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Michael D. Castagnetto	officer: President of Robinson Fresh	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55437
Ben G Campbell	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55437
Biesterfeld Robert C Jr	officer: President, N American Surface	14701 CHARLSON RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Mark A. Goodburn	director	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Arun Rajan	officer: Chief Product Officer	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347