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Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Cellectar Biosciences's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Cellectar Biosciences's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cellectar Biosciences's Predictability Rank falls into.

Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cellectar Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cellectar Biosciences Business Description

Cellectar Biosciences logo
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
100 Campus Drive, Florham Park, NJ, USA, 07932
Cellectar Biosciences Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. It focusses on development of targeted phospholipid drug conjugates for the treatment and imaging of cancer. The company's pipeline consists of pre-clinical and clinical product candidates including radiotherapeutic and chemotherapeutic phospholipid drug conjugates. Its portfolio of products in development includes CLR 131, CTX Product Portfolio consisting of CTX CLR 1800-P, CTX CLR 1602-PTX and CTX CLR 1700, CLR 125, CLR 124, and CLR 1502.
Friend John E. Ii officer: VP, Chief Medical Officer 26 ORCHARD LANE COLT NECK NJ 07722
Neis John director 505 S. ROSA ROAD, SUITE 201 MADISON WI 53719
Hill Stephen A director 50 AVENUE GENERAL DE GAULLE BRUXELLES C9 9999999999
Driscoll Frederick W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DRISCOLL FREDERICK W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Loren Stefan director 3226 AVENIDA DE SUENO CARLSBAD CA 92009
Elefant Dov officer: Chief Financial Officer EPICEPT CORPORATION 270 SYLVAN AVENUE ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632
Caruso James V director, officer: President and CEO C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC. 8383 GREENWAY BLVD STE 600 MIDDLETON WI 53562
Longcor Jarrod officer: Chief Business Officer C/O RIB-X PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 300 GEORGE STREET, SUITE 301 NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Grachev Igor D officer: Chief Medical Officer 15 REID LANE MILLSTONE TWP NJ 08535
Bernhardt Charles Thomas Iii officer: Interim CFO 23 BIRCH ROAD MALVERN PA 19355
Posner Brian M officer: Chief Financial Officer 1590 REED ROAD PENNINGTON NJ 08534
Hamill John P. officer: Interim CFO 4092 NEW HOPE ROAD FURLONG PA 18925
Kolean Chad J officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC. 3301 AGRICULTURE DRIVE MADISON WI 53716
Hertzberg Richard other: significant owner 1329 STRATFORD COURT DEL MAR CA 92014

Cellectar Biosciences Headlines

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