Castle Biosciences (Castle Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Castle Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Castle Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Castle Biosciences (Castle Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Castle Biosciences Inc (NAS:CSTL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

505 S. Friendswood Drive, Suite 401, Friendswood, TX, USA, 77546

Website

https://www.castlebiosciences.com

Castle Biosciences Inc is a commercial-stage dermatological cancer company. It is focused on providing physicians and their patients with personalized, clinically actionable genomic information to make more accurate treatment decisions. The product portfolio of the company includes Cutaneous Melanoma, DecisionDx-Melanoma, DecisionDx-CMSeq, and DecisionDx-PRAME among others.

Executives

Daniel Bradbury	director	BIOBRIT, LLC, 2223 AVENIDA DE LA PLAYA, SUITE 108, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Derek J Maetzold	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres. & Chief Exec. Officer	820 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 201, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Ellen Goldberg	director	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 505 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 401, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Tiffany Olson	director	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 505 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 401, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Kristen M Oelschlager	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, 505 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 401, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Bernhard E. Spiess	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 820 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 201, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Kim Caple	director	C/O BIOSCIENCES, INC., 505 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 401, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Frank Stokes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, 820 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 201, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Tobin W Juvenal	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, 505 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 401, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
David S Kabakoff	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SPIROS DEVELOPMENT CORP II INC, 7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cook Joseph C. Iii	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CASTLE BIOSCIENCES, INC., 820 S. FRIENDSWOOD DRIVE, STE. 201, FRIENDSWOOD TX 77546
Mara G. Aspinall	director	7381 NORTH MOON SPIRIT LANE, TUCSON AZ 85718
Bonnie H Anderson	director	6000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mgc Venture Partners 2013 Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MOUNTAIN GROUP CAPITAL, LLC, 3835 CLEGHORN AVE., SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Mgc Venture Partners 2013, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O MOUNTAIN GROUP CAPITAL, LLC, 3835 CLEGHORN AVE., SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37203