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Orgenesis Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orgenesis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Orgenesis Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Orgenesis's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Orgenesis Business Description

Orgenesis logo
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
20271 Goldenrod Lane, Germantown, MD, USA, 20876
Orgenesis Inc is a part of the healthcare sector. It is a fully-integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on developing trans-differentiation technologies for diabetes and vertically integrating manufacturing that can optimize its abilities to scale-up its technologies for clinical trials and eventual commercialization. The group operates in two segments namely CDMO and POC. The company is also engaged in applying its disciplined execution to emerging technologies of other cell therapy markets in such areas as cell-based cancer immunotherapies and neurodegenerative diseases.
Reithinger Neil officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary 14950 N. 83RD PLACE SUITE 1 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Philips Mario director C/O ATMI, INC DANBURY CT 06810
Ferber Sarah officer: Chief Scientific Officer 17B HAHASKALA STREET TEL AVIV L3 67890
Yachin Guy director 7 ORCHARD WAY N POTOMAC MD 20854
Nanda Ashish director 2301, 23RD FLOOR, TIFFANY TOWERS CLUSTER W, JLT, DUBAI, UAE DUBAI C0 4452
Bedoret Denis officer: See Remarks 48, RUE AUGUSTE PICCARD GOSSELIES C9 6041
Universite Libre De Bruxelles other: less than 10% AVENUE F, ROOSEVELT, 50 BRUSSELS C9 1050
Theodorus Ii Sa other: less than 10% ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Theodorus Sca other: less than 10% ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Belenger Olivier other: less than 10% DIEWEG, 69 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Shvartz Oded 10 percent owner 130 BIRUINTEI BVD. PANTELIMON, ILFOV S5 0000000
Bultot Hugues director AVENUE DE L??HORIZON 24 WOLUWE SAINT PIERRE C9 1150
Buyse Chris Georges Frans director BAILLET LATOURLEI 119A BRUSSELS C9 2390
Tenne Joseph officer: CFO Treasurer Secretary 6225 NEIL ROAD, SUITE 300 C/O ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. RENO NV 89511

Orgenesis Headlines

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