PLAB (Photronics) Predictability Rank

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What is Photronics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Photronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Photronics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Photronics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Photronics Inc (NAS:PLAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PQ2:Germany PQ2:Germany

Address

15 Secor Road, Brookfield, CT, USA, 06804

Website

https://www.photronics.com

Photronics Inc is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in manufacturing photomasks. The photomasks are photographic quartz or glass plates that contain microscopic images of electronic circuits that are used as a component in the manufacture of integrated circuits and flat-panel displays. The revenue from products designed for integrated circuits production accounts for the majority of total revenue, with the rest derived from products for flat-panel display production. The company's assets are located in Taiwan, Korea, and the United States. It generates revenue world-wide, including in the United States, Europe, Taiwan, Korea, China, and elsewhere in Asia, with Taiwan contributing the majority of total revenue.

Executives

Walter M Fiederowicz	director	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Kang Jyh Lee	officer: President, Asia IC Photomask	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Christopher J Progler	officer: VP,Chief Technology Officer	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Adam M Lewis	director	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Mitchell G Tyson	director	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Peter S Kirlin	officer: Senior VP, U.S. & Europe	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Richelle E Burr	officer: VP, General Counsel & Secy	15 SECOR RD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
John P Jordan	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE, WEST WARWICK RI 02893
Daniel Jl Liao	director	2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE, TEMPE AZ 85284
Fiorita Joseph A Jr	director	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Mary Paladino	director	15 SECOR ROAD, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
George Macricostas	director	15 SECOR ROAD, PO BOX 5226, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Macricostas Constantine S	director	15 SECOR ROAD, P.O. BOX 5226, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Sean T Smith	officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer	15 SECOR ROAD, PO BOX 5226, BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Liang Choo Hsia	director	15 SECOR RD., BROOKFIELD CT 06804