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Photronics Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Photronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Photronics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Photronics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Photronics Business Description

Photronics logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
15 Secor Road, Brookfield, CT, USA, 06804
Photronics is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in manufacturing photomasks. The photomasks are photographic quartz plates that contain microscopic images of electronic circuits that are used as a component in the manufacture of integrated circuits and flat-panel displays. The revenue from products designed for integrated circuits production accounts for the majority of total revenue, with the rest derived from products for flat-panel display production. The company's assets are located in Taiwan, Korea, and the United States. It generates revenue worldwide, including the United States, Europe, Taiwan, Korea, China, and elsewhere in Asia, with Asia contributing the majority of total revenue.
Executives
Lewis Adam M director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Liao Daniel Jl director 2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE TEMPE AZ 85284
Paladino Mary director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Lee Kang Jyh officer: President, Asia IC Photomask 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Jordan John P officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer 600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE WEST WARWICK RI 02893
Hsia Liang Choo director 15 SECOR RD. BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Gmt Capital Corp 10 percent owner GMT CAPITAL CORP 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 550 SOUTH ATLANTA GA 30339
Burr Richelle E officer: VP, General Counsel & Secy 15 SECOR RD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Kirlin Peter S officer: Senior VP, U.S. & Europe 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Progler Christopher J officer: VP,Chief Technology Officer 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Jeong Soo Hong officer: COO, President-Asia Operations 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Luttati Michael J director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Maris Willem D director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Tyson Mitchell G director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Yomazzo Michael J director 15 SECOR ROAD PO BOX 5226 BROOKFIELD CT 06804

Photronics Headlines

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