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PTC Therapeutics Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


PTC Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PTC Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PTC Therapeutics Business Description

PTC Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Corporate Court, South Plainfield, NJ, USA, 07080
PTC Therapeutics Inc is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of orally administered, small-molecule therapeutics. Its target area is RNA biology post-transcriptional control processes of the events occurring in a cell when a RNA messenger is copied from DNA during the transcription process. The discovered products address multiple therapeutic areas, including rare disorders, such as nonsense mutations in Duchenne muscular dystrophy and oncology.
Executives
Southwell David P director C/O INOTEK PHARMACEUTICALS CORPORATION 91 HARTWELL AVENUE LEXINGTON MA 02421
Jacobson Allan Steven director PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Peltz Stuart Walter director, officer: Chief Executive Officer PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Utter Christine Marie officer: SVP, Finance & CAO C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Boulding Mark Elliott officer: Exec. VP and CLO C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Hill Emily Luisa officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Svoronos Dawn director C/O MEDIVATION, INC. 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Pauwels Eric officer: Chief Business Officer 550 HILLS DRIVE BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Klein Matthew B. officer: Chief Development Officer C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Schmertzler Michael director 1300 VALLEY ROAD NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Souza Marcio officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Almstead Neil Gregory officer: Chief Technical Ops Officer C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. 100 CORPORATE COURT SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Reeve Emma director C/O PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 195 WEST STREET WALTHAM MA 02451
Steele Glenn Jr Md Phd director 250 TECHNOLOGY PARK LAKE MARY FL 32746-6232
Zeldis Jerome B director 8767 E. VIA DE VENTURA, SUITE 190 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85258

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