>
Switch to:

Research Frontiers Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1986. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Research Frontiers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Research Frontiers Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Research Frontiers's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Research Frontiers Business Description

Research Frontiers logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334419 SIC : 3679
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
240 Crossways Park Drive, Woodbury, NY, USA, 11797-2033
Research Frontiers Inc is engaged in the development and marketing of technology and devices to control the flow of light. The company develops and licenses its patented suspended particle device light-control technology to other companies that manufacture and market the SPD-Smart chemical emulsion, the light-control film made from the chemical emulsion, the light-control panels made by laminating the film, electronics to power end-products incorporating the film, or lamination services for, and the end-products. Its revenue source comes from the licensing of technology.
Executives
Douglas Family Trust 10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group 125 E. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD. SUITE 400 LARKSPUR CA 94939
James & Jean Douglas Irrevocable Descendants Trust 10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group 125 E. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD. SUITE 400 LARKSPUR CA 94939
Douglas Kevin 10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group 125 E. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD. SUITE 400 LARKSPUR CA 94939
Settle William Graham director 6003 COBRIDGE SQUARE RALEIGH NC 27609
Lapointe Michael R officer: VP-Marketing PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: LAPOINTE MICHAEL R a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Harary Joseph M director, officer: President and CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: HARARY JOSEPH M a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Van Voorhees Seth officer: CFO & VP-Business Development 12 HARVEY DRIVE SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Daigle Darryl director 3213 WYTCHWOOD DRIVE MORGAN CITY LA 70380
Kaganowicz Alexander director 1217 CARLLS STRAIGHT PATH DIX HILLS NY 11746
Grimes Gregory George director 24 FIFTH AVENUE APT. 1530 NEW YORK NY 10011
Slovak Steven Michael officer: Vice President-Technology 240 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE WOODBURY NY 11797
Saxe Robert L director, officer: Chairman of the Board PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SAXE ROBERT L a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Keen Victor F director C/O RESEARCH FRONTIERS INC. 240 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE WOODBURY NY 11797
Guthrie Marion Philip director THREE LINCOLN CENTRE 5430 LBJ FWY., SUITE 1480 DALLAS TX 75240
Derby Jack director 399 BOYLSTON STREET BOSTON MA 02117

Research Frontiers Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)