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NextEra Energy Partners LP (NextEra Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is NextEra Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NextEra Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NextEra Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NextEra Energy Partners LP (NextEra Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » NextEra Energy Partners LP (NYSE:NEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CWEN.A AY FLNC RNW ORA AMPS NRGV ELLO FNEC WNDW ISX:BREN CEG WBO:VER XPRA:CEZ OCSE:ORSTED SHSE:600905 SHSE:600025 SZSE:001289 BOM:541450 XLIS:EDPR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
700 Universe Boulevard, Juno Beach, FL, USA, 33408
Website
http://www.nexteraenergypartners.com
NextEra Energy Partners LP is formed to acquire, manage and own contracted clean energy projects. It owns interests in wind and solar projects in North America, as well as natural gas infrastructure assets in Texas. The renewable energy projects are fully contracted, use industry technology and are in regions that are favorable for generating energy from the wind and sun. Its natural gas pipelines in the portfolio are all strategically located, serving power producers and municipalities in South Texas, processing plants and producers in the Eagle Ford Shale, and commercial and industrial customers in the Houston area. Renewable energy sales generate maximum revenue for the company.
Executives
Peter H Kind director ONE LEADERSHIP SQUARE, 211 NORTH ROBINSON AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Michael Dunne officer: Treasurer 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Crews Terrell Kirk Ii officer: Chief Financial Officer 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
James Michael May officer: Controller/CAO 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
John W Ketchum director, officer: President 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Charles E Sieving officer: General Counsel C/O NEXTERA ENERGY, INC., 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Rebecca J Kujawa director, officer: Chief Financial Officer 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
James L Robo director, officer: Chairman & CEO 3300 PGA BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Robert J Byrne director C/O MASONITE INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 201 NORTH FRANKLIN ST., SUITE 300, TAMPA FL 33602
Paul I Cutler officer: Treasurer & Asst. Sec C/O NEXTERA ENERGY, INC., 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Mark E Hickson director, officer: EVP, Strategy & Corp Dev 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Susan D Austin director 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Armando Jr Pimentel director, officer: President of GP C/O NEXTERA ENERGY, INC., 700 UNIVERSE BLVD., JUNO BEACH FL 33408
James N. Suciu director 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
Nextera Energy Partners, Lp director 700 UNIVERSE BOULEVARD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408