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Nutanix (NAS:NTNX) Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Nutanix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Nutanix Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nutanix's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Nutanix (NAS:NTNX) Business Description

Nutanix logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1740 Technology Drive, Suite 150, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110
Nutanix Inc provides native hybrid cloud capabilities for businesses. The company offers Enterprise Cloud Platform to businesses for various uses such as web-scale engineering and consumer-grade design, virtualization, and storage into a resilient, and software-defined solution. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Europe, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Africa, and other regions.
Executives
Rukmini Sivaraman officer: Chief Financial Officer 1740 TECHNOLOGY DR., SUITE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Teresa Gayle Sheppard director C/O ENVISTA HOLDINGS CORPORATION, 200 S. KRAEMER BLVD., BLDG. E, BREA CA 92821
Susan L Bostrom director
Craig Conway director SALESFORCE TOWER, 415 MISSION STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Brian Mark Stevens director 25 HOOPER HILL RD., NEW BOSTON NH 03070
Virginia Gambale director C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP., 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Rajiv Ramaswami director, officer: President and CEO 5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Kaddaras Christopher Nicholas Jr officer: Chief Revenue Officer C/O NUTANIX, INC., 1740 TECHNOLOGY DR., STE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Tyler Wall officer: Chief Legal Officer CHORDIANT SOFTWARE, INC., 20400 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., STE. 400, CUPERTINO CA 94014
Aaron Boynton officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O NUTANIX, INC., 1740 TECHNOLOGY AVE., SUITE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Tarkan Maner officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O NUTANIX, INC., 1740 TECHNOLOGY AVE., SUITE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David Humphrey director C/O BAIN CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
De Groen Max Pieter director 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Sohaib Abbasi director 100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Louis J Attanasio officer: Chief Revenue Officer 1740 TECHNOLOGY AVE., SUITE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110

Nutanix (NAS:NTNX) Headlines

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