Avient (Avient) Predictability Rank

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What is Avient Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avient Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avient (Avient) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Avient Corp (NYSE:AVNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PY9:Germany

Address

33587 Walker Road, Avon Lake, OH, USA, 44012

Website

https://www.avient.com

Avient Corp manufactures and sells a variety of chemical and plastic-based products to designers and processors of plastics. The firm operates in three segments: Specialty Engineered Materials; Distribution; and Color, Additives, & Ink. The company's product portfolio includes concentrated color and ink blends, plastic resins, and various specialized polymer materials used in industries such as food packaging, construction, transportation, cosmetics, and healthcare. The color, additives, & ink segment and the distribution segment together generate a vast majority of revenue. More than half of the total revenue is derived from the United States.

Executives

Robert M Patterson	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Joel R. Rathbun	officer: SVP, Mergers & Acquisitions	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Kristen Gajewski	officer: SVP & CHRO	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Lisa K. Kunkle	officer: SVP Gnrl Counsel & Secretary	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Neil Green	director	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Ernest Nicolas	director	1201 S. 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Michael A Garratt	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Robert Vinod Purayath	officer: SVP & Chief Technology Officer	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Jamie A. Beggs	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Cathy Dodd	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
J Scott Horn	officer: SVP, President Distribution	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Richard H Fearon	director	1239 GERBING ROAD, AMELIA ISLAND FL 32034
Midea M. John Jr.	officer: SVP, Glbl Ops & Process Imprv	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Woon Keat Moh	officer: SVP, President of CAI	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Patricia Verduin	director	ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102