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Chubb Predictability Rank


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3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Chubb Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Chubb Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chubb's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Chubb Business Description

Chubb logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Baerengasse 32, Zurich, CHE, CH-8001
ACE acquired Chubb in the first quarter of 2016 and assumed the Chubb name. The combination makes the new Chubb one of the largest domestic property and casualty insurers, with operations in 54 countries spanning commercial and personal P&C insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance.
Executives
Bonanno Kathleen director 3000 TANNERY WAY SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Enns Peter C. officer: Executive Vice President and* THE CHUBB BUILDING 17 WOODBOURNE AVENUE HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Tellez Luis director DESC, S.A. DE C.V PASEO DE LOS TAMARINDOS TORRE PISO 32 CUAJIMALPA O5 05120
Townsend Frances F director C/O BAKER BOTTS LLP THE WARNER, 1299 PENNSYLVANIA AVE., NW WASHINGTON DC 20004-2400
Hugin Robert J director C/O THE MEDICINES CO 8 CAMPUS DR PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Hagan Annmarie T officer: Chief Accounting Officer TWO LIBERTY PLACE 1601 CHESTNUT STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Ortega Juan Luis officer: Executive Vice President* CHUBB AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Andrade Juan C officer: Executive Vice President* THE HARTFORD ONE HARTFORD PLAZA HARTFORD CT 06155
Krump Paul J officer: Executive Vice President* C/O CHUBB & SON 15 MOUNTAIN VIEW RD P O BOX161 WARREN NJ 07061-1615
Kellner Lawrence W director 1600 SMITH ST. HQSEO HOUSTON TX 77002
Zimmerman James M director C/O FOSSIL GROUP, INC. 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY RICHARDSON TX 75080
Cash James I director C/O WINSTAR COMMUNICATIONS INC 685 THIRD AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Burke Sheila P director WELLPOINT, INC 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Sidwell David H director MORGAN STANLEY 1585 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10036
Edwardson John A director P O BOX 66100-WHQLD CHICAGO IL 60666

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