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Delta Air Lines Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Airlines subindustry, Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Delta Air Lines Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank falls into.



Delta Air Lines Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Delta Air Lines Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Delta Air Lines's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Delta Air Lines Business Description

Delta Air Lines logo
Industry
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 481111 SIC : 4512
Address
Post Office Box 20706, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30320-6001
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines is one of the world's largest airlines, with a network of over 300 destinations in more than 50 countries. Delta operates a hub-and-spoke system network, where it gathers and distributes passengers across the globe through key locations in Atlanta, New York, Salt Lake City, Detroit, Seattle, and Minneapolis-St. Paul. Delta's sale of frequent flier miles, particularly to American Express, is a major driver of the firm's profits.
Executives
Jacobson Paul A officer: EVP & CFO C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., DEPT. 981 P.O. BOX 20574 ATLANTA GA 30320
Carter Ashton B director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Mattson George N director C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Jackson Jeanne P director 537 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE #306 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Waller Kathy N director THE COCA-COLA COMPANY ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA ATLANTA GA 30313
Taylor David S director THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA CINCINNATI OH 45202
Rial Sergio director CARGILL, INCORPORATED 15615 MCGINTY ROAD WEST WAYZATA MN 55391
Huerta Michael P director 1800 M STREET NW SUITE 800 WASHINGTON DC 20036
Dewalt David G director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DEWALT DAVID G a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Blake Francis S director 2455 PACES FERRY RD ATLANTA GA 30339
Easter William H Iii director 370 17TH ST STE 2500 DENVER CO 80202
Samant Rahul D officer: EVP & Chief Info Officer C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320
Buffett Warren E 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM ST STE 1440 OMAHA NE 68131
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 10 percent owner 3555 FARNAM STREET OMAHA NE 68131
Carroll William C officer: SVP, Finance & Controller C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC. P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981 ATLANTA GA 30320

Delta Air Lines Headlines

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