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Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Information Technology Services subindustry, Dun & Bradstreet Holdings's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Dun & Bradstreet Holdings's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Dun & Bradstreet Holdings's Predictability Rank falls into.



Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dun & Bradstreet Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Business Description

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 541519 SIC : 7374
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 JFK Parkway, Short Hills, NJ, USA, 07078
Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Inc is one of the leading providers of business decisioning data and analytics. The company provides commercial credit decisioning, which helps businesses to make informed decisions when considering extending business loans and trade credit. Also, the company offers solutions to firms looking to analyze supplier relationships and more effectively collect outstanding receivables. Its operating segment includes North America and International. The company generates maximum revenue from the North American region. Other services provided by the company include digital marketing, sales acceleration, and risk management among others.
Executives
Quella James director C/O CATALENT, INC. 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD SOMERSET NJ 08822
Thl Equity Fund Viii Investors (d&b), L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P. 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thl Managers Viii, Llc director, 10 percent owner 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thl Equity Advisors Viii, Llc director, 10 percent owner 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thl Fund Viii Coinvestment Partners, L.p. director, 10 percent owner 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H. Lee Equity Fund Viii, L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P. 100 FEDERAL STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Thl Executive Fund Viii, L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P. 100 FEDERAL STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H. Lee Parallel Fund Viii, L.p. director, 10 percent owner C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P. 100 FEDERAL STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Jackson Keith J director ONE MISSISSIPPI PLAZA 201 SOUTH SPRING STREET TUPELO MS 38804
Ammerman Douglas K director 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Thl Holdco, Llc director, 10 percent owner 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H Lee Partners Lp director, 10 percent owner 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H. Lee Advisors, Llc director, 10 percent owner C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P. 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Foley William P Ii director, 10 percent owner, other: Chairman of the Board FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Massey Richard N director 900 S. SHACKLEFORD ROAD SUITE 401 LITTLE ROCK AR 72211

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