What is FedEx Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
FedEx Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
FedEx Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
942 South Shady Grove Road, Memphis, TN, USA, 38120
FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. In its fiscal 2024, which ended in May, FedEx derived 47% of revenue from its express division, 37% from ground, and 10% from freight, its asset-based less-than-truckload shipping segment. The remainder came from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016, boosting its presence across Europe. TNT was previously the fourth-largest global parcel delivery provider.
Executives
| Frederick W Smith |
director, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD |
942 S SHADY GROVE RD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| John Alan Smith |
officer: President & CEO/FedEx Freight |
1715 AARON BRENNER DRIVE, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Susan C Schwab |
director |
2101 VAN MUNCHING HALL, COLLEGE PARK MD 20742 |
| Richard W Smith |
officer: President/CEO FedEx Express |
3610 HACKS CROSS ROAD, BUILDING A 3RD FLOOR, MEMPHIS TN 38125 |
| John W Dietrich |
officer: EVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFF |
|
| Amy B Lane |
director |
1626 EAST JEFFERSON ST, ROCKVILLE MD 20852 |
| Brie Carere |
officer: EVP/Chief Mkt & Comm Officer |
942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Sriram Krishnasamy |
officer: EVP - CTO & CEO Dataworks |
1715 AARON BRENNER DRIVE, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Marvin R Ellison |
director |
1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117 |
| Erwin Guy M Ii |
officer: STAFF VP INT PRIN ACCT OFFICER |
942 S SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| David P Steiner |
director |
1001 FANNIN ST, STE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Mark R Allen |
officer: EVP GENL COUNSEL/SECTY |
942 SOUTH SHADY GROVE RD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Robert B Carter |
officer: EVP CHIEF INFO OFFICER |
942 S SHADY GROVE RD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Paul S Walsh |
director |
8 HENRIETTA PLACE, LONDON X0 94111 |
| Tracy B Brightman |
officer: EVP - Chief People Officer |
942 S SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
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