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FedEx Predictability Rank

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4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FedEx Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FedEx Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of FedEx's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

FedEx Business Description

FedEx logo
Industrials » Transportation NAICS : 492110 SIC : 4513
942 South Shady Grove Road, Memphis, TN, USA, 38120
FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. In its fiscal 2020 (ended May 2020), FedEx derived 51% of revenue from its express division, 33% from ground, and 10% from freight, its asset-based less-than-truckload shipping segment. The remainder comes from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016. TNT was previously the fourth- largest global parcel delivery provider.
Brannon Jill officer: EVP - Chief Sales Officer 942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38120
Maier Henry J officer: President and CEO/FedEx Ground 1000 FEDEX DRIVE MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Walsh Paul S director 8 HENRIETTA PLACE LONDON X0 94111
Colleran Donald F officer: President/CEO FedEx Express 942 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38117
Carter Robert B officer: EVP / Chief Info Officer 942 S SHADY GROVE RD MEMPHIS TN 38120
Carere Brie officer: EVP/Chief Mkt & Comm Officer 942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD MEMPHIS TN 38120
Martin R Brad director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MARTIN R BRAD a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Smith John Alan officer: President & CEO/FedEx Freight 1715 AARON BRENNER DRIVE MEMPHIS TN 38120
Jackson Shirley A director 110 8TH STREEET TROY NY 12180-3590
Inglis John C director 605 HILLSMERE DRIVE ANNAPOLIS MD 21403
Steiner David P director 1001 FANNIN ST STE 4000 HOUSTON TX 77002
Griffith Susan Patricia director 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Schwab Susan C director 2101 VAN MUNCHING HALL COLLEGE PARK MD 20742

FedEx Headlines

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