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Invesco Mortgage Capital Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Invesco Mortgage Capital's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Invesco Mortgage Capital Predictability Rank Distribution

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Invesco Mortgage Capital's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Invesco Mortgage Capital's Predictability Rank falls into.



Invesco Mortgage Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Invesco Mortgage Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Invesco Mortgage Capital's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Invesco Mortgage Capital Business Description

Invesco Mortgage Capital logo
Industry
Real Estate » REITs NAICS : 531190 SIC : 6798
Address
1555 Peachtree Street, N.E., Suite 1800, Two Peachtree Pointe, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is an REIT that invests, finances, and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The company's portfolio consists of residential mortgage-backed securities for which a U.S. government agency or a federally chartered corporation guarantees payment of principal and interest, or Agency RMBS; residential mortgage-backed securities that are not issued or guaranteed by an agency, or nonagency RMBS; commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS; and residential and commercial mortgage loans. The asset manager for the company is Invesco Advisers, a subsidiary of Invesco.
Executives
Hardin Edward J director 5430 LBJ FREEWAY SUIT 1700 DALLAS TX 75240
Lockhart Dennis P director 100 GOLF ROAD GOLF IL 60029
Handlon Carolyn B director 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Day John director 1520 OLD TROLLEY ROAD SUMMERVILLE SC 29485
Lientz James R Jr director GEORGIA POSER CO BIN 10240 241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD ATLANTA GA 30308
Starr Loren M director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STARR LOREN M a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Lyle David B officer: Chief Operating Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Collins Kevin M officer: President 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Clemente Mario other: Officer of Manager 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Norris Brian officer: CIO 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Phegley Richard Lee Jr. officer: Chief Financial Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Anzalone John officer: CEO INVESCO LTD. 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE ATLANTA GA 30309
Perlis Roseann officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309
Morris Sheri officer: Chief Investment Officer INVESCO LTD., 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 100 ATLANTA GA 30309
Marshall Jason officer: Chief Investment Officer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 1800 ATLANTA GA 30309

Invesco Mortgage Capital Headlines

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