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MasTec Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Engineering & Construction subindustry, MasTec's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

MasTec Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, MasTec's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where MasTec's Predictability Rank falls into.



MasTec Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MasTec Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MasTec's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


MasTec Business Description

MasTec logo
Industry
Industrials » Construction NAICS : 237130 SIC : 1623
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
800 S. Douglas Road, 12th Floor, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134
MasTec Inc is a leading infrastructure construction company operating primarily throughout North America. Its principal activities include engineering, building, installation, maintenance, and upgrades of communications, energy, and utility infrastructure. The company installs wireless, wireline, and satellite communications; oil and gas pipeline infrastructure; conventional and renewable power generation; and other industrial systems. MasTec has five operating segments: Communications, Oil and Gas, Electrical Transmission, Clean Energy and Infrastructure, and Other. The majority of its revenue is derived from the Communications segments. The company markets services individually and in combination with other companies to provide a wide range of solutions for customers.
Executives
De Cardenas Alberto officer: EVP, General Counsel 800 S DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES X1 33134
Johnson Julia L director NETCOMMUNICATIONS LLC 614 GRAND HIGHWAY CLAREMONT FL 34711
Csiszar Ernst N director 2600 S RIVER ROAD DES PLAINES IL 60018
Dwyer Robert J director 880 SOUTH OCEAN BOULEVARD PALM BEACH FL 33480
Sorzano Jose S director AUSTIN GROUP INC 5305 LEE HIGHWAY NORTH ARLINGTON VA 22207
Palomarez Javier Alberto director 3405 PINNEY POINT DRIVE FLOWER MOUND TX 75022
Campbell C Robert director 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Mas Jose Ramon director, officer: CEO 800 DOUGLAS ROAD, 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Mas Jorge director 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Pita George officer: CFO 3000 NW 107TH AVENUE MIAMI FL 33172
Apple Robert E officer: COO 800 S DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Heuvelen John Van director 363 HIGH STREET DENVER CO 80218
Jaumot Frank E director 190 SE 19TH AVENUE POMPANO BEACH FL 33060
Restrepo Daniel A director C/O MASTEC, INC. 800 S. DOUGLAS RD., 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Harris Ray officer: President 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR - MASTEC CORAL GABLES FL 33134

MasTec Headlines

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