>
Switch to:

Public Service Enterprise Group Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1986. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Public Service Enterprise Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Public Service Enterprise Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Public Service Enterprise Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Public Service Enterprise Group Business Description

Public Service Enterprise Group logo
Industry
Utilities » Utilities - Regulated NAICS : 221121 SIC : 4931
Address
80 Park Plaza, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102
Public Service Enterprise Group is the holding company for a regulated utility (PSE&G) and other nonregulated businesses such as nuclear power generation and clean energy infrastructure. PSE&G provides regulated gas and electricity delivery services in New Jersey to a combined 4 million customers. PSEG also operates the Long Island Power Authority system. In 2022, PSEG sold its gas and oil power plants in the Mid-Atlantic, New York, and the Northeast.
Executives
Larossa Ralph A officer: COO PSEG 80 PARK PLAZA NEWARK NJ 07102
Chernick Rose M officer: Vice President and Controller 80 PARK PLAZA, T4B NEWARK NJ 07102
Jackson Shirley A director 110 8TH STREEET TROY NY 12180-3590
Zollar Alfred W director C/O LOTUS SOFTWARE ONE ROGER STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Stephenson Scott G director C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD JERSEY CITY NJ 07310-1686
Deese Willie A director DENTSPLY SIRONA INC 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Tomasky Susan director AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA COLUMBUS OH 43215
Ostrowsky Barry H director RWJBARNABAS HEALTH 95 OLD SHORT HILLS ROAD WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Lilley David director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: LILLEY DAVID a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Surma John P director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SURMA JOHN P a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Sugg Laura A director ONE BRIARLAKE PLAZA, SUITE 2000 2000 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH HOUSTON TX 77042
Cregg Daniel J officer: Executive VP & CFO 80 PARK PLAZA, T4 NEWARK NJ 07102
Izzo Ralph director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO PSEG 80 PARK PLAZA T6B NEWARK NJ 07102-4194
Daly David Matthew officer: President - PSE&G 80 PARK PLAZA, T4 NEWARK NJ 07102
Dirisio Derek M officer: President, PSEG Services Corp. PSEG 80 PARK PLAZA NEWARK NJ 07102

Public Service Enterprise Group Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)