PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Public Service Enterprise Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Public Service Enterprise Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Public Service Enterprise Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (NYSE:PEG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PEG:Mexico 0KS2:UK PSE:Germany PEG:Austria

Address

80 Park Plaza, Newark, NJ, USA, 07102

Website

https://investor.pseg.com

Public Service Enterprise Group is the holding company for a regulated utility (PSE&G) and PSEG Power, which owns all or a share of three nuclear plans and clean energy projects. PSE&G provides regulated gas and electricity delivery services in New Jersey to a combined 4.3 million customers. Public Service Enterprise Group also operates the Long Island Power Authority system. In 2022, the company sold its gas and oil power plants in the mid-Atlantic, New York, and the Northeast.

Executives

Ralph A Larossa	officer: President & COO - PSE&G	PSEG, 80 PARK PLAZA, NEWARK NJ 07102
Scott G Stephenson	director	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310-1686
Kim C Hanemann	officer: President and COO - PSE&G	1500 RONSON ROAD, ISELIN NJ 08830
Richard T Thigpen	officer: SVP Corporate Citizenship	80 PARK AVENUE, NEWARK NJ 07102
Tamara Louise Linde	officer: EVP & General Counsel	80 PARK PLAZA, T4, NEWARK NJ 07102
Rose M Chernick	officer: Vice President and Controller	80 PARK PLAZA, T4B, NEWARK NJ 07102
Kenneth Tanji	director	751 BROAD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, ATTN: REGULATORY FILINGS UNIT, NEWARK NJ 07102
Eric Carr	officer: President & COO - PSEG Power	PO BOX 236, HANCOCKS BRIDGE NJ 08038
Sheila J Rostiac	officer: SVP HR & CHRO & CDO	80 PARK PLAZA, NEWARK NJ 07102
Ralph Izzo	officer: President and COO - PSE&G	PSEG 80 PARK PLAZA, T6B NEWARK NJ 07102-4194
Jamie M Gentoso	director	80 PARK PLAZA, NEWARK NJ 07102
Valerie Ann Smith	director	80 PARK PLAZA, NEWARK NJ 07102
Daniel J Cregg	officer: Executive VP & CFO	80 PARK PLAZA, T4, NEWARK NJ 07102
John P Surma	director
Derek M Dirisio	officer: Vice President and Controller	PSEG, 80 PARK PLAZA, NEWARK NJ 07102