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Royal Caribbean Group Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Royal Caribbean Group's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Royal Caribbean Group Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Royal Caribbean Group's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Royal Caribbean Group's Predictability Rank falls into.



Royal Caribbean Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Royal Caribbean Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Royal Caribbean Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Royal Caribbean Group Business Description

Royal Caribbean Group logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure NAICS : 483111 SIC : 4489
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1050 Caribbean Way, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Royal Caribbean is the world's second- largest cruise company, operating more than 60 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, allowing it to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company is completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.
Executives
Kulovaara Harri U officer: EVP, Maritime ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISE LINES 6100 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 200 MIAMI FL 33126
Pujol Henry L officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Bayley Michael W officer: Pres& CEO,Royal Caribbean Intl ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Stein Bradley H officer: SVP, GC & ChiefComplianceOff 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Lutoff-perlo Lisa officer: Pres & CEO, Celebrity Cruises 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Liberty Jason T officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
A Wilhelmsen A S 10 percent owner BEDDINGEN 8 AKER BRYGGE 1250 OSLO PO BOX 1583 VIKA N 0118 OSLO NORWAY Q8 00000
Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander director ANDERS WILHELMSEN & CO. AS BEDDINGEN 8, AKER BRYGGE OSLO Q8 NO-0118
Montiel Maritza Gomez director 475 W. TERRA COTTA AVE., SUITE E CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Howe Stephen R. Jr. director C/O ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Sorensen Vagn O director ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Pritzker Thomas director PRITZKER & PRITZKER 200 W. MADISON STREET, 38TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60606
Ofer Eyal director CARLYLE M.G. LIMITED 18 UPPER BROOK STREET LONDON X0 W1Y 1PD
Moore Ann S director C/O AVON PRODUCS INC 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Brock John director 2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY ATLANTA GA 30339

Royal Caribbean Group Headlines

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