Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pinterest Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pinterest Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PINS:Mexico P2IN34:Brazil

Address

505 Brannan Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.pinterest.com

Pinterest is an online product and idea discovery platform that helps users gather ideas on everything from recipes to cook to destinations to travel to. Founded in 2010, the platform consists of a largely female audience, at roughly two thirds of its more than 365 million monthly active users. The company generates revenue by selling digital ads and is now rolling out more in-platform e-commerce features.

Executives

Marc Steinberg	director	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Wanjiku Juanita Walcott	officer: Chief Legal Officer	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
William J Ready	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Andrea Acosta	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 770 LINDARO ST, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Naveen Gavini	officer: SVP, Products	505 BRANNAN ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Salaam Coleman	director	505 BRANNAN ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94701
Andrea M Wishom	director	651 BRANNAN ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
L Michelle Wilson	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Jeremy S. Levine	director	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Fredric G Reynolds	director	CBS CORPORATION, 51 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Leslie J Kilgore	director	121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Gokul Rajaram	director	301 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 700, AUSTIN TX 78701
Jeffrey D Jordan	director	2865 SAND HILL ROAD #101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Evan Sharp	director, officer: Co-Founder & Chief Design & Cr	505 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Benjamin Silbermann	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President, CEO, Co-F	505 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107