Protagenic Therapeutics (Protagenic Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is Protagenic Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Protagenic Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Protagenic Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Protagenic Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Protagenic Therapeutics (Protagenic Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Protagenic Therapeutics Inc (NAS:PTIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MBP:Germany

Address

149 Fifth Avenue, Suite 500, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.protagenic.com

Protagenic Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics to treat stress-related neuropsychiatric and mood disorders. It provides treatments for mood, anxiety, depression and neurodegenerative disorders by using peptide-based and brain active therapeutics. The company's lead compound, PT00114, is a synthetic form of Teneurin Carboxy-terminal Associated Peptide, an endogenous brain signaling peptide that can dampen overactive stress responses. It has also created a portfolio of novel neuropeptides that are in various stages of development and preclinical evaluation for the treatment of mood disorders.

Executives

Alexander K. Arrow	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 3094, REDWOOD CITY CA 94064
Jennifer Buell	director	3 FORBES ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Brian Corvese	director	C/O ANTIGENICS INC., 162 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10010
Robert Benjamin Stein	director	C/O AGENUS INC., 3 FORBES ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Khalil Barrage	director	149 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 500, NEW YORK NY 10010
Gregory Ekizian	director	149 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 500, NEW YORK NY 10010
Robert Ziroyan	officer: COO / Interim President	149 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 500, NEW YORK NY 10010
Joshua Silverman	director	IROQUOIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 205 EAST 42ND ST - 20TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10017
Garo H Armen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	3 FORBES ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Edward J Gildea	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CONVERTED ORGANICS INC., 7A COMMERCIAL WHARF WEST, BOSTON MA 02110
David J Horin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1270 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Jonathan Schechter	director	C/O ATRINSIC, INC. 1 GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 2319, NEW YORK NY 10165
Nathan Yu-gai Fong	officer: Chief Financial Officer	THE ORCHARD ENTERPRISES, INC., 23 E. 4TH ST., 3RD FL., NEW YORK NY 10003
Sharon Siegel	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O ATRINSIC, INC., 469 SEVENTH AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Raymond Musci	director, officer: Exec VP, Corporate Development	C/O BRILLIANT DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT INC, 6355 TOPANGA CANYON BOULEVARD SUITE 520, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367