What is Salem Media Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Salem Media Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Salem Media Group (Salem Media Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6400 North Belt Line Road, Irving, TX, USA, 75063
Salem Media Group Inc is a domestic multimedia company with integrated operations including radio broadcasting, digital media, and publishing. The company has three operating segments, Broadcast, Digital Media, and Publishing. Digital media-based businesses provide Christian, conservative, investing and health-themed content, e-commerce, audio and video streaming, and other resources digitally through the web.
Executives
| Jacki L Pick |
director |
6400 N BELT LINE ROAD, IRVING TX 75063 |
| Eugene Allen Power |
officer: President Broadcast Media |
6400 NORTH BELT LINE ROAD, IRVING TX 75063 |
| Epperson 2022 Gst Trust |
10 percent owner |
3780 WILL SCARLET ROAD, WINSTON SALEM NC 27104 |
| Epperson Stuart W. Jr. |
director, 10 percent owner |
4880 SANTA ROSA RD., CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Stuart W Epperson |
10 percent owner |
3780 WILL SCARLET RD, WINSTON SALEM NC 27104 |
| Evan D Masyr |
officer: V.P. and Corporate Controller |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, STE 300, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| David P Santrella |
officer: President - Broadcast Media |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Christopher J Henderson |
officer: SVP, General Counsel & Secy |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| David Evans |
officer: Senior Vice President and CFO |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Atsinger Edward G Iii |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President |
4880 SANTA ROSA RD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Heather W Grizzle |
director |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93010 |
| James Keet Lewis |
director |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Edward C. Atsinger |
director |
6400 NORTH BELT LINE ROAD, IRVING TX 75063 |
| Jonathan Venverloh |
director |
4880 SANTA ROSA ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
| Eric H Halvorson |
director |
4880 SANTA ROSA RD, CAMARILLO CA 93012 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
SALM has been successfully added to your