Symbotic (Symbotic) Predictability Rank

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What is Symbotic Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Symbotic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Symbotic (Symbotic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Symbotic Inc (NAS:SYM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SYM:Mexico

Address

200 Research Drive, Wilmington, MA, USA, 01887

Website

https://www.symbotic.com

Symbotic Inc is an automation technology company that develops technologies to improve operating efficiencies in modern warehouses. The group develops, commercializes, and deploys innovative, end-to-end technology solutions that dramatically improve supply chain operations. Symbotic also automates the processing of pallets and cases in large warehouses or distribution centers for some of the retail and wholesale companies in the world. The company operates in two geographical regions the United States and Canada. Key revenue is generated from the United States.

Executives

Michael David Dunn	officer: See Remarks	C/O SYMBOTIC INC., 200 RESEARCH DRIVE, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Todd Krasnow	director	C/O CARBONITE, INC., 177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02115
Boyd William M Iii	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O SYMBOTIC INC., 200 RESEARCH DRIVE, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Rollin L. Ford	director	702 S.W. 8TH STREET, MAIL STOP # 0215, BENTONVILLE AR 72716-0215
Charles Kane	director	289 TURNPIKE RD, WESTBORO MA 01581
David A Ladensohn	10 percent owner	C/O SYMBOTIC INC., 200 RESEARCH DRIVE, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Ernst Thomas C Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2201 LAKESIDE BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75082
Richard B Cohen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O SYMBOTIC INC., 200 RESEARCH DRIVE, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Janet L Cohen	10 percent owner	C/O SYMBOTIC INC., 200 RESEARCH DRIVE, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Sunlight Investment Corp.	10 percent owner	300 EL CAMINO REAL, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Svf Ii Strategic Investments Aiv Llc	10 percent owner	300 EL CAMINO REAL, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Svf Ii Spac Investment 3 (de) Llc	10 percent owner	1 CIRCLE STAR WAY, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Softbank Group Corp	10 percent owner	1-7-1 KAIGAN, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 105-7537
Northstar Gp Sb	10 percent owner	69 GROSVENOR STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 3JP
Sb Management Ltd	10 percent owner	9TH FLOOR, AL SILA TOWER, ADGM SQUARE, AL MARYAH ISLAND, ABU DHABI C0 NA