1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
TripAdvisor Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
TripAdvisor (TripAdvisor) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
400 1st Avenue, Needham, MA, USA, 02494
Tripadvisor is the world's leading travel metasearch company. Its platform offers 1 billion reviews and information on about 8 million accommodations, restaurants, experiences, airlines, and cruises. In 2022, 65% of revenue came from the company's core segment, which includes hotel revenue generated through advertising on its metasearch platform. Viator, its experiences brand, was 33% of sales in 2022, and TheFork, its dining brand, represented 8% of revenue (about 6% of sales were intersegment, which are eliminated from consolidated revenue).
Executives
| Seth J Kalvert |
officer: SVP, GC, Sec. |
C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., 141 NEEDHAM STREET, NEWTON MA 02464 |
| Michael Noonan |
officer: CFO & SVP |
C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., 400 1ST AVENUE, NEEDHAM MA 02494 |
| Geoffrey Gouvalaris |
other: Chief Accounting Officer |
400 1ST AVENUE, NEEDHAM MA 02494 |
| Ernst 02494 Teunissen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., 400 1ST AVENUE, NEEDHAM HEIGHTS MA 02494 |
| Matt Goldberg |
director, officer: CEO and President |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Jay C Hoag |
director |
250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Gregory B Maffei |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Kanika Soni |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O TRIPADVISOR INC., 400 1ST AVENUE, NEEDHAM MA 02494 |
| Liberty Tripadvisor Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Jie Sun |
director |
BUILDING 16#, NO. 968 JIN ZHONG ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200335 |
| Lindsay Nelson |
officer: Chief Experience&Brand Officer |
C/O TRIPADVISOR INC., 400 FIRST AVENUE, NEEDHAM MA 02494 |
| Pemrose Corp |
director |
350 MADISON AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Certares Ltrip Llc |
director |
350 MADISON AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Certares Holdings (blockable) Llc |
director |
350 MADISON AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Certares Holdings Llc |
director |
350 MADISON AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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