Value Line (Value Line) Predictability Rank

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What is Value Line Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Value Line Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Value Line (Value Line) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Value Line Inc (NAS:VALU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

551 Fifth Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10176-0001

Website

https://www.valueline.com

Value Line Inc is a U.S based company. It produces investment periodicals based on underlying research and making available copyright data, including ranking system and other information, to third parties under written agreements for use in third-party managed and marketed investment products and for other purposes. The company markets under well-known brands including Value Line, the Value Line logo, The Value Line Investment Survey, Smart Research, Smarter Investing and The Most Trusted Name in Investment Research. Its only operating segment being Publishing.

Executives

Glenn J. Muenzer	director	357 HARVARD COURT, EAST MEADOW NY 11554
Alfred R Fiore	director	1 ANGORA ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
Howard A Brecher	director, officer: Acting Chairman and Acting CEO	VALUE LINE 220 E 42ND ST, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stephen Anastasio	officer: Chief Financial Officer	220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
William Edward Reed	director	12 KNORR STREET, NORWALK CT 06854
Mary Bernstein	director	220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stephen P Davis	director	57 EAST 95TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10128
Thomas Sarkany	director, officer: Secretary	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Robert M. Perkins,	director	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Ruth O. Legon,	director	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Arnold Bernhard & Co Inc	10 percent owner	220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Janet Eakman	director	220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mitchell Eric Appel	officer: CFO	VALUE LINE INC, 220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edward J Shanahan	director	220 EAST 42 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marianne B Asher	director