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Workday (NAS:WDAY) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Workday Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Workday Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Workday's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Workday (NAS:WDAY) Business Description

Workday logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6110 Stoneridge Mall Road, Pleasanton, CA, USA, 94588
Workday is a software company that offers human capital management, or HCM, financial management, and business planning solutions. Known for being a cloud-only software provider, Workday is headquartered in Pleasanton, California. Founded in 2005, Workday now employs over 12,000 employees.
Executives
Frederick Wayne A.i. director 500 W MAIN ST., LOUISVILLE KY 40202
David A Duffield 10 percent owner C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Michael M Mcnamara director C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL LTD, 2090 FORTUNE DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Thomas F Bogan director C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6110 STONERIDGE MALL RD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Barbara A Larson officer: Chief Financial Officer 6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Douglas A. Robinson officer: Co-President 6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Lynne M Doughtie director C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, MC 5003-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Michael C Bush director 6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Richard Harry Sauer officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secty 6110 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Ann Marie Campbell director 2455 PACES FERRY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30339
Petros Dermetzis officer: Chief Products Officer 321 LIVORNA HEIGHTS ROAD, ALAMO CA 94507
Carl M. Eschenbach director C/O SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, PALO ALTO CA 94025
Gomez Luciano Fernandez officer: Co-President 1A SHAWFIELD STREET,, RICHARDSON HOUSE, LONDON X0 SW3 4BA
Styslinger Lee J Iii director 2826 BALMORAL ROAD, BIRMINGHAM AL 35223
Robynne Sisco officer: Chief Financial Officer 3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304

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