Western New England Bancorp (Western New England Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Western New England Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Western New England Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Western New England Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Western New England Bancorp (Western New England Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Western New England Bancorp Inc (NAS:WNEB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

489:Germany

Address

141 Elm Street, Westfield, MA, USA, 01085

Website

https://www.westfieldbank.com

Western New England Bancorp Inc through its bank subsidiary, provides a range of financial services to individuals and companies in western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. These services include commercial lending, residential lending and consumer lending, checking, savings and time deposits, cash management, and wealth management. Substantially all of the Company's revenues, profits, and assets are derived by the Bank from banking products and services.

Executives

Steven G. Richter	director	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01144
Miles Allen J Iii	officer: EVP & Senior Lender	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Filipe B Goncalves	officer: SVP & Associate CCO	C/O WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Laura Benoit	director	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
John E Bonini	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Kevin C O'connor	officer: EVP & Chief Banking Officer	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Guida R Sajdak	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	70 CENTER STREET, CHICOPEE MA 01013
James C Hagan	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL INC, 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Daniel A Marini	officer: SVP Retail Banking & Marketing	C/O WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Gorman Louis O Iii	officer: SVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Philip R Smith	director	C/O WESTFIELD FINANCIAL, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Darlene M Libiszewski	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01085
Christine Phillips	officer: SVP, HR Director	C/O WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP, INC., 141 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD MA 01086
Gregg F Orlen	director	C/O CHICOPEE BANCORP INC., 70 CENTER STREET, CHICOPEE MA 01013
William D Masse	director	C/O CHICOPEE BANCORP INC., 70 CENTER STREET, CHICOPEE MA 01013