W.P. Carey (W.P. Carey) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

W.P. Carey Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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W.P. Carey (W.P. Carey) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » W.P. Carey Inc (NYSE:WPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WPC:Mexico WPY:Germany WPY:Germany

Address

One Manhattan West, 395 9th Avenue, 58th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.wpcarey.com

W.P. Carey Inc is a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of properties located in the U.S., Western Europe, and Northern Europe. W.P. Carey organizes its operations into Real Estate and Investment Management segments. The vast majority of the company's income is derived from its Real Estate division in the form of lease revenue from long-term agreements with companies. W.P. Carey's real estate portfolio is primarily comprised of single-tenant office, industrial, warehouse, and retail facilities located around the world. most of the company's revenue comes from properties in the USA. The company's Investment Management unit generates revenue from providing real estate advisory and portfolio management services to other REITs.

Executives

Brian H Zander	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE., 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Mark A Alexander	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., 395 9TH AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK, NEW YORK NY 10001
Talma Stheeman Mechthild Elisabeth	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC, ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE., 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Beier Constantin H.	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST 395 9TH AVENUE, 58 FL, NEW YORK, NEW YORK NY 10001
Gino M. Sabatini	officer: Managing Director	C/O W. P. CAREY & CO. LLC, 50 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
John J Park	officer: President	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE. 58TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jason E. Fox	director, officer: CEO	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE., 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Arjun Mahalingam	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., 50 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
Toniann Sanzone	officer: CFO	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE., 58 FL, NEW YORK, NEW YORK NY 10001
Brooks G. Gordon	officer: Managing Director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., 50 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10020
Tonit M Calaway	director	HARLEY-DAVIDSON MOTOR COMPANY, 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Margaret G Lewis	director	200 COMMERCE STREET, SMITHFIELD VA 23430
Robert J Flanagan	director	C/O SAGENT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1901 NORTH ROSELLE ROAD, SUITE 700, SCHAUMBURG IL 60195
Peter Farrell	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., ONE MANHATTAN WEST,395 9TH AVENUE, 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Van Ommen Nick J.m.	director	C/O W. P. CAREY & CO. LLC, ONE MANHATTAN WEST, 395 9TH AVE. 58 FL, NEW YORK NY 10001