XWELL (XWEL) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XWELL Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

XWELL Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of XWELL's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

XWELL (XWEL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » XWELL Inc (NAS:XWEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

254 West 31st Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.xwell.com

XWELL Inc is a health and wellness holding company. It is an airport retailer of spa services through XpresSpa locations, offering travelers premium spa services, including massage, nail, and skincare, as well as spa and travel products. It operates four reportable operating segments: XpresCheck, XpresSpa, Treat, and HyperPointe. XpresSpa is an airport retailer of wellness services and related products. Treat is a travel health and wellness brand that offers in-airport spa and wellness medical services. XpresCheck provides Covid-19 screening and diagnostic testing in partnership with the CDC. HyperPointe is a digital healthcare and data analytics relationship company.

Executives

Suzanne A. Scrabis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XWELL, INC., 254 WEST 31ST STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Robert Weinstein	director	3960 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 500, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Scott R Milford	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TOWN SPORTS INTERNATIONAL, LLC, 5 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Bruce Bernstein	director	780 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ezra Ernst	officer: See Remarks	C/O XPRESSPA GROUP, INC., 254 WEST 31ST STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Omar Haynes	officer: VP Treas & Fi & Interim CFO	C/O XPRESSPA GROUP, INC., 254 WEST 31ST STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Doug Satzman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	780 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
James A. Berry	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O XPRESSPA GROUP, INC., 254 WEST 31ST STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Michael Lebowitz	director	780 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, C/O XPRESSPA GROUP, INC., NEW YORK NY 10017
Donald E. Stout	director	780 THIRD AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mistral Spa Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MISTRAL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 650 FIFTH AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Mistral Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	650 FIFTH AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Andrew R Heyer	other: Former director and 10% owner	501 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 5, NEW YORK NY 10019
Calm.com, Inc.	10 percent owner	140 2ND STREET, THIRD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Edward Jankowski	officer: SVP; CEO of XpresSpa	C/O FORM HOLDINGS CORP., 780 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017