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Alcoa (AAPRB.PFD) Altman Z2-Score : 2.07 (As of Apr. 29, 2024)


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What is Alcoa Altman Z2-Score?

Altman Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score, is used to predict the likelihood that a non-manufacturing company (excluding property/financial company) will face bankruptcy within a two-year period.

Alcoa has a Altman Z2-Score of 2.07, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that Alcoa is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.1, the company may face bankrupcy risk.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z2-Score <= 1.1, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score >= 2.6, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score is between 1.1 and 2.6, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score or its related term are showing as below:


Alcoa Altman Z2-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

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Alcoa Altman Z2-Score Chart

Alcoa Annual Data
Trend Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15
Altman Z2-Score
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Alcoa Quarterly Data
Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16
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Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z2-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score falls into.



Alcoa Altman Z2-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies.

Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=6.56*X1+3.26*X2+6.72*X3+1.05*X4_2
=6.56*0.1033+3.26*0.2387+6.72*0.0134+1.05*0.4985
=2.07

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z2-Score when X4_2 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Sep. 2016:
Total Assets was $37,448.00 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $9,368.00 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $5,500.00 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $8,940.00 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was 333 + 330 + 41 + -721 = $-17.00 Mil.
Interest Expense was -133 + -129 + -127 + -129 = $-518.00 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $23,503.00 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(9368 - 5500)/37448
=0.1033

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=8940/37448
=0.2387

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-17 - -518)/37448
=0.0134

X4_2=Net Worth/Total Liabilities
=(Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities
=(11775 - 58)/23503
=0.4985

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.1 < Grey Zones < 2.6 - Safe Zones

Alcoa has a Altman Z2-Score of 2.07 indicating it is in Grey Zones.


Alcoa  (NYSE:AAPRB.PFD) Altman Z2-Score Explanation

The original Z-Score model was based on publicly traded manufacturing companies while the Z2-Score, also known as Z"-score can be used for any type of company excluding property/financial companies. Both Z-Score and Z2-Score describes the financial health of a company, and its likelihood of financial distress.

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4_2, Net Worth (Total Stockholders Equity - Preferred Stock)/Total Liabilities (NW/TL): it compares a company’s stock net worth with its total liabilities and can be used to assess the extent of its reliance on debt.

Read more about Altman Z2-Score, the original research on Z-Score and the additional research on Z2-Score.


Be Aware

Altman Z2-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Alcoa Altman Z2-Score Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alcoa's Altman Z2-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alcoa (AAPRB.PFD) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Arconic Inc, formerly known as Alcoa Inc was first incorporated as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company on October 1, 1888. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and engineering lightweight metals. Its products include aluminum, titanium, and nickel, used in aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. The Company is also engaged in the production and management of aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active participation in all aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. It has investments and operating activities in, among others, Australia, Brazil, China, Guinea, Iceland, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The Company operates in segments including Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Company's Global Rolled Products segment represents its midstream operations. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment represents a portion of the Company's downstream operations. Its downstream portfolio includes two segments Engineered Products and Solutions and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Engineered Products and Solutions consist of Alcoa Titanium & Engineered Products; Alcoa Fastening Systems & Rings; Alcoa Forgings and Extrusions; and Alcoa Power and Propulsion. The Company's Transportation and Construction Solutions segment represents a portion of its downstream operations. The raw materials used includes bauxite, alloying materials, caustic soda, alumina, electricity, aluminum fluoride, fuel oil, calcined petroleum coke, lime (CaO), cathode blocks, natural gas, electricity, liquid pitch, natural gas, titanium alloys, titanium sponge and resin. The Company's trademark products include Howmet metal castings, Huck fasteners, Kawneer building panels and Dura-Bright wheels with easy-clean surface treatments.

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