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China Tourism Group Duty FreeSHSE:601888 -1.66%81 Altman Z2-Score is 8.15 as of Aug. 15, 2026, which is 2% below its 10-year median of 8.29. GuruFocus rates SHSE:601888 with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of ¥68.42 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,084 Retail - Cyclical companies, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks better than 86.99% on this metric.
Altman Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score, is used to predict the likelihood that a non-manufacturing company (excluding property/financial company) will face bankruptcy within a two-year period.
Good Sign:
China Tourism Group Duty Free has a Altman Z2-Score of 8.15, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Altman Z2-Score is strong.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z2-Score <= 1.1, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score >= 2.6, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score is between 1.1 and 2.6, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score or its related term are showing as below:
SHSE:601888'
s Altman Z2-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 5.4 Med: 8.29 Max: 10.26
Current: 8.15
During the past 13 years, China Tourism Group Duty Free's highest Altman Z2-Score was 10.26. The lowest was 5.40. And the median was 8.29.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Altman Z2-Score Explanation
The original Z-Score model was based on publicly traded manufacturing companies while the Z2-Score, also known as Z"-score can be used for any type of company excluding property/financial companies. Both Z-Score and Z2-Score describes the financial health of a company, and its likelihood of financial distress.
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z2-Score Chart
SHSE:601888 vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Altman Z2-Score Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z2-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z2-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score falls into.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z2-Score Calculation
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z2-Score when X4_2 value is 0.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) has a Altman Z2-Score of 8.15 as of Aug. 15, 2026. Z2-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies, which measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 8.29. Over the past decade, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score has ranged from 5.40 to 10.26. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #141 out of 1084 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 13%.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score too high?
China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z2-Score of 8.15 is near median its 10-year median of 8.29. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 5.40 to a high of 10.26. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Altman Z2-Score is 2.90. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of 8.15 is 181.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #141 out of 1084 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z2-Score compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #141 out of 1084 companies for Altman Z2-Score. This places China Tourism Group Duty Free in the top 13% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Altman Z2-Score is 2.90. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of 8.15 is 181.5% above this benchmark. Historically, China Tourism Group Duty Free's own Altman Z2-Score has ranged from 5.40 to 10.26 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 8.29 vs. the industry median of 2.90, China Tourism Group Duty Free has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z2-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Altman Z2-Score among Retail - Cyclical companies is 2.90, based on 1,084 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z2-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z2-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z2-Score of 8.15 is 181.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z2-Score mean?
A high Altman Z2-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Z2-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies, which measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Altman Z2-Score is 2.90 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z2-Score is 8.15, which is near median its own 10-year median of 8.29. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ¥68.42, compared to a current price of ¥54.06 — trading 21% below its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z2-Score is 8.15, which is near median its 10-year median of 8.29 and 181.5% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 2.90. China Tourism Group Duty Free's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z2-Score calculated?
Altman Z2-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888), the current Altman Z2-Score is 8.15 as of Aug. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of ¥54.06 is trading 21% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥68.42.
GuruFocus considers China Tourism Group Duty Free to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for SHSE:601888:
Altman Z2-Score: 8.15 (near median its 10-year median of 8.29)
GF Value™: ¥68.42 vs. price of ¥54.06 (21% below fair value)
Industry Position: 181.5% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#141 of 1084)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:601888 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
81GF Score
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