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China Tourism Group Duty FreeSHSE:601888 -1.66%81 Altman Z-Score is 5.14 as of Aug. 15, 2026, which is 57% below its 10-year median of 11.91. GuruFocus rates SHSE:601888 with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of ¥68.42 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,115 Retail - Cyclical companies, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks better than 78.74% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Good Sign:
Altman Z-score of 5.24 is strong.
China Tourism Group Duty Free has a Altman Z-Score of 5.14, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Altman Z-Score is strong.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
SHSE:601888'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 5.24 Med: 11.91 Max: 22.14
Current: 5.24
During the past 13 years, China Tourism Group Duty Free's highest Altman Z-Score was 22.14. The lowest was 5.24. And the median was 11.91.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z-Score Chart
SHSE:601888 vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Altman Z-Score Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score falls into.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Altman Z-Score Calculation
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) has a Altman Z-Score of 5.14 as of Aug. 15, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. This is 57% below median its historical median of 11.91. Over the past decade, China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score has ranged from 5.24 to 22.14. According to the industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #237 out of 1115 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 21.3%.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score too high?
China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z-Score of 5.14 is 57% below median its 10-year median of 11.91. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 5.24 to a high of 22.14. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.74. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of 5.14 is 87.6% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #237 out of 1115 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Tourism Group Duty Free's Altman Z-Score compare to CASY and WSM?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, China Tourism Group Duty Free ranks #237 out of 1115 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places China Tourism Group Duty Free in the top 21% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.74. China Tourism Group Duty Free's value of 5.14 is 87.6% above this benchmark. Historically, China Tourism Group Duty Free's own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 5.24 to 22.14 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 11.91 vs. the industry median of 2.74, China Tourism Group Duty Free has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Retail - Cyclical companies is 2.74, based on 1,115 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z-Score of 5.14 is 87.6% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Tourism Group Duty Free and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 2.74 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Tourism Group Duty Free's current Altman Z-Score is 5.14, which is 57% below median its own 10-year median of 11.91. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ¥68.42, compared to a current price of ¥54.06 — trading 21% below its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 5.14, which is 57% below median its 10-year median of 11.91 and 87.6% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 2.74. China Tourism Group Duty Free's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888), the current Altman Z-Score is 5.14 as of Aug. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Tourism Group Duty Free stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of ¥54.06 is trading 21% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥68.42.
GuruFocus considers China Tourism Group Duty Free to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for SHSE:601888:
Altman Z-Score: 5.14 (57% below median its 10-year median of 11.91)
GF Value™: ¥68.42 vs. price of ¥54.06 (21% below fair value)
Industry Position: 87.6% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#237 of 1115)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:601888 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2025 with revenue of CNY 54 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 33 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business. Its 2025 revenue mix was 73% duty-free sales and 27% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.
81GF Score
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