Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Assurant's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.17%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison
For the Insurance - Specialty subindustry, Assurant's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Assurant Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution
For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Assurant's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Assurant's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.
Assurant Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-6.35
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Assurant Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Assurant's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Assurant Inc offers a range of property-casualty, health, employee benefit, and warranty insurance to a client base made up of individuals and institutions. Its segments are Global Housing, Global Lifestyle, Corporate and Other. Global Housing segment, the key revenue-generating segment, provides lender-placed homeowners insurance, lender-placed manufactured housing insurance and lender-placed flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing insurance, voluntary homeowners insurance and other specialty products. Global Lifestyle provides mobile device solutions and extended service products and related services for mobile devices, consumer electronics and appliances; vehicle protection; and credit protection and other insurance products.
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