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Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Jul. 15, 2024)


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What is Cisco Systems Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cisco Systems's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Cisco Systems Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.28

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Cisco Systems  (NAS:CSCO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Cisco Systems Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Address
170 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134-1706
Cisco Systems is the largest provider of networking equipment in the world and one of the largest software companies in the world. Its largest businesses are selling networking hardware and software (where it has leading market shares) and cybersecurity software like firewalls. It also has collaboration products, like its Webex suite, and observability tools. It primarily outsources its manufacturing to third parties and has a large sales and marketing staff—25,000 strong across 90 countries. Overall, Cisco employees 80,000 employees and sells its products globally.
Executives
Richard Scott Herren officer: EVP and CFO 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Maria Victoria Wong officer: SVP & Chief Acctg Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Deborah L Stahlkopf officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jeffery S. Sharritts officer: EVP & Chief Cust & Prtnr Offcr 1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mark Garrett director 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Maria Martinez officer: EVP, Chief Customer Exp Offcr THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Charles Robbins officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Daniel H Schulman director C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Roderick C Mcgeary director 1421 MCCRTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Prat Bhatt officer: VP, Corporate Controller & PAO 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Kristina M Johnson director 19 HEATH PL, DURHAM NC 27705
Sarah Rae Murphy director C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Geraldine Elliott officer: EVP, Chief Sales & Mktg Offcr 1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
M Michele Burns director C/O MARSH &MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036-2774
Mark D Chandler officer: SVP, LglSrvs, GenCnsl & Secty 170 W TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134