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Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $44.39 (As of Jun. 17, 2024)


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What is Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-06-17), Cisco Systems's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $44.39.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Cisco Systems's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Cisco Systems is -2.91%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CSCO' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.62   Med: 1.06   Max: 12.82
Current: 1.03

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Cisco Systems was 12.82. The lowest was 0.62. And the median was 1.06.

CSCO's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
55.74% of 305 companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 0.96 vs CSCO: 1.03

Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Cisco Systems Annual Data
Trend Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 40.21 46.01 40.81 39.00 44.30

Cisco Systems Quarterly Data
Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24 Apr24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 37.92 44.30 44.13 47.35 44.39

Competitive Comparison of Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.25%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.50%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Cisco Systems's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 6.50%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 6.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.489.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.065)/(1+0.11) = 0.95945945945946
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.489*12.7223
=44.39

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(44.39-45.68)/44.39
=-2.91 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Cisco Systems  (NAS:CSCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Address
170 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134-1706
Cisco Systems is the largest provider of networking equipment in the world and one of the largest software companies in the world. Its largest businesses are selling networking hardware and software (where it has leading market shares) and cybersecurity software like firewalls. It also has collaboration products, like its Webex suite, and observability tools. It primarily outsources its manufacturing to third parties and has a large sales and marketing staff—25,000 strong across 90 countries. Overall, Cisco employees 80,000 employees and sells its products globally.
Executives
Richard Scott Herren officer: EVP and CFO 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Maria Victoria Wong officer: SVP & Chief Acctg Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Deborah L Stahlkopf officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jeffery S. Sharritts officer: EVP & Chief Cust & Prtnr Offcr 1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mark Garrett director 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Maria Martinez officer: EVP, Chief Customer Exp Offcr THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Charles Robbins officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Daniel H Schulman director C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Roderick C Mcgeary director 1421 MCCRTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Prat Bhatt officer: VP, Corporate Controller & PAO 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Kristina M Johnson director 19 HEATH PL, DURHAM NC 27705
Sarah Rae Murphy director C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Geraldine Elliott officer: EVP, Chief Sales & Mktg Offcr 1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
M Michele Burns director C/O MARSH &MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036-2774
Mark D Chandler officer: SVP, LglSrvs, GenCnsl & Secty 170 W TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134