GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $49.62 (As of Jun. 16, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-06-16), Cisco Systems's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $49.62.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Cisco Systems's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Cisco Systems is 7.94%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CSCO' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.28   Med: 0.53   Max: 7.26
Current: 0.92

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Cisco Systems was 7.26. The lowest was 0.28. And the median was 0.53.

CSCO's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked better than
56.41% of 273 companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 1.02 vs CSCO: 0.92

Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Cisco Systems Annual Data
Trend Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22 Jul23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 67.98 70.02 104.82 68.74 49.74

Cisco Systems Quarterly Data
Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24 Apr24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 66.01 49.74 49.34 53.17 49.62

Competitive Comparison of Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cisco Systems's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.24%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Cisco Systems's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $3.1401.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.098)/(1+0.11) = 0.98918918918919
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.1401*15.8036
=49.62

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (49.62 - 45.68) / 49.62
= 7.94 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Cisco Systems  (NAS:CSCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Cisco Systems Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cisco Systems's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cisco Systems (Cisco Systems) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Address
170 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134-1706
Cisco Systems is the largest provider of networking equipment in the world and one of the largest software companies in the world. Its largest businesses are selling networking hardware and software (where it has leading market shares) and cybersecurity software like firewalls. It also has collaboration products, like its Webex suite, and observability tools. It primarily outsources its manufacturing to third parties and has a large sales and marketing staff—25,000 strong across 90 countries. Overall, Cisco employees 80,000 employees and sells its products globally.
Executives
Richard Scott Herren officer: EVP and CFO 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Maria Victoria Wong officer: SVP & Chief Acctg Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Deborah L Stahlkopf officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jeffery S. Sharritts officer: EVP & Chief Cust & Prtnr Offcr 1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mark Garrett director 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Maria Martinez officer: EVP, Chief Customer Exp Offcr THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Charles Robbins officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Daniel H Schulman director C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Roderick C Mcgeary director 1421 MCCRTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Prat Bhatt officer: VP, Corporate Controller & PAO 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Kristina M Johnson director 19 HEATH PL, DURHAM NC 27705
Sarah Rae Murphy director C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Geraldine Elliott officer: EVP, Chief Sales & Mktg Offcr 1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
M Michele Burns director C/O MARSH &MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036-2774
Mark D Chandler officer: SVP, LglSrvs, GenCnsl & Secty 170 W TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134