Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
China Jinmao Holdings Group (FRA:3F5) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
China Jinmao Holdings Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
China Jinmao Holdings Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison
For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Jinmao Holdings Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Real Estate Industry
For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
China Jinmao Holdings Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-6.24
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.19% mean?
China Jinmao Holdings Group (FRA:3F5) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.19% as of Jul. 12, 2026.
Is China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
China Jinmao Holdings Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19%. Overall, China Jinmao Holdings Group has a GF Score™ of 53/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
China Jinmao Holdings Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.19% can be compared against companies in the Real Estate industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Real Estate company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. China Jinmao Holdings Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Jinmao Holdings Group stock overvalued right now?
China Jinmao Holdings Group (FRA:3F5) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.19%. The stock's GF Value™ is €0.10, compared to a current price of €0.14 — trading 42% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19%. China Jinmao Holdings Group's overall GF Score™ is 53/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Jinmao Holdings Group (FRA:3F5), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19% as of Jul. 12, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Jinmao Holdings Group (FRA:3F5) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Jinmao Holdings Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of €0.14 is trading 42% above its estimated GF Value™ of €0.10.
Key valuation signals for FRA:3F5:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.19%
GF Value™: €0.10 vs. price of €0.14 (42% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:3F5 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
China Jinmao, formerly known as Franshion Properties, is a mid-cap real estate developer in China. It listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2007. As the real estate arm of Sinochem, a leading government-controlled chemical-producing conglomerate, China Jinmao focuses on the development of high-end residential projects in wealthy cities of China with premium pricing. It also engages in a unique city operation model, in which it has opportunities to participate in large-scale primary and secondary land development through specific agreements with local government. Under the mixed ownership reform initiative, China Jinmao brought in Ping An as a long-term financial investor and second-largest shareholder.
53GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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