Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co (HKSE:00095) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 1.79% (As of Mar. 29, 2025)

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What is Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.79%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

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Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-4.01

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	1.79%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co (HKSE:00095) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (HKSE:00095) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

123 Hoi Bun Road, Unit 2501, NEO, Kwun Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.lvgem-china.com

Lvgem (China) Real Estate Investment Co Ltd is a real estate developer and a commercial property operator. The company's reportable segments are Real estate development and sales segment include sales of properties; Commercial property investment and operations segment include lease of commercial properties, office premises, apartments and car parks and Comprehensive services segment includes hotel operation, property management service.The majority of its revenue is earned through Real estate development and sales segment. The Company's operations are located in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States of America and Cambodia.

Executives

Greater Bay Area Homeland Development Fund (gp) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Greater Bay Area Homeland Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Poly Platinum Enterprises Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
China Construction Bank Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Central Huijin Investment Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gardner Aaron Luke (in The Capacity Of The Receiver)	2501 Other
Xu Jun Jia	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Grand Beyond Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Huang Jingshu	2202 Interest of your spouse
Chan Tak Ho	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Arte Capital I Gp Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Arte Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Arte Special Situation Fund, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Proud Pine Limited
Wong Hong King

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