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Maiyue Technology (HKSE:02501) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Mar. 03, 2025)


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What is Maiyue Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Information Technology Services subindustry, Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Maiyue Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Maiyue Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.88

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Maiyue Technology  (HKSE:02501) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Maiyue Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Maiyue Technology Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9 Gehai Road, Room 806, 8th Floor, Office Area, Block B, East Tower, Guangxi, Guangxi Sports Centre Supporting Project Complex, Nanning, CHN
Maiyue Technology Ltd is an integrated IT solutions services provider in the education and government IT solutions markets in Guangxi. It primarily focuses on the provision of customized integrated IT solutions services to customers in the education sector, primarily offline formal public education institutions, for the purpose of digitalized campus development. It aims to utilize technologies in its products and services to assist education institutions in opening up and connecting different departments, functions and facilities of campus in a single platform, realizing the integration and utilization of data from multiple sources, which improves the overall campus experience and effectiveness of teaching and learning.
Executives
Chan Eong Liat Jason 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Deep Blue Ocean Electronics Technology Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Deng Caidie 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
He Deling 2202 Interest of your spouse
Kong Xiaoyan 2202 Interest of your spouse
Li Changqing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Yufei 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Tao 2202 Interest of your spouse
Yang Zihan 2202 Interest of your spouse
Zhang Guangbai 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Canwest Profits Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ng Ling Ling 2202 Interest of your spouse
Koh Lik Ching 2202 Interest of your spouse
Million Oak Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ye Shanmin 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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