Maiyue Technology (HKSE:02501) Predictability Rank

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What is Maiyue Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Maiyue Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Maiyue Technology (HKSE:02501) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Maiyue Technology Ltd (HKSE:02501) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 Gehai Road, Room 806, 8th Floor, Office Area, Block B, East Tower, Guangxi, Guangxi Sports Centre Supporting Project Complex, Nanning, CHN

Website

http://www.maiyuesoft.com

Maiyue Technology Ltd is an integrated IT solutions services provider in the education and government IT solutions markets in Guangxi. It primarily focuses on the provision of customized integrated IT solutions services to customers in the education sector, primarily offline formal public education institutions, for the purpose of digitalized campus development. It aims to utilize technologies in its products and services to assist education institutions in opening up and connecting different departments, functions and facilities of campus in a single platform, realizing the integration and utilization of data from multiple sources, which improves the overall campus experience and effectiveness of teaching and learning.

Executives

Deep Blue Ocean Electronics Technology Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Deng Caidie	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
He Deling	2202 Interest of your spouse
Kong Xiaoyan	2202 Interest of your spouse
Li Changqing	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Yufei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Tao	2202 Interest of your spouse
Yang Zihan	2202 Interest of your spouse
Zhang Guangbai	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Canwest Profits Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ng Ling Ling	2202 Interest of your spouse
Chan Eong Liat Jason	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Koh Lik Ching	2202 Interest of your spouse
Million Oak Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ye Shanmin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Maiyue Technology (HKSE:02501) Headlines

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