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CarMax (NYSE:KMX) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.07% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, CarMax's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, CarMax's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   
CarMax Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, CarMax's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CarMax's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.


CarMax Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.34

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

CarMax  (NYSE:KMX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

CarMax Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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CarMax (NYSE:KMX) Business Description

CarMax logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » CarMax Inc (NYSE:KMX) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
NYSE:PAG NYSE:LAD NYSE:AN NYSE:CVNA NYSE:ABG NYSE:GPI NAS:RUSHA NAS:ACVA NAS:DRVN NAS:CARG TPE:2207 XBRU:DIE HKSE:00881 TSE:4732 LSE:INCH ASX:APE SHSE:600297 IST:DOAS NYSE:SAH NYSE:KAR
Traded in Other Exchanges
KMX:Mexico XA4:Germany
Address
12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23238
Website
https://www.carmax.com
CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of about 240 used retail stores. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales typically account for about 83% of revenue (78% in fiscal 2023 due to the chip shortage) and wholesale about 13% (20% in fiscal 2023), with the remaining portion composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2023, the company retailed and wholesaled 807,823, and 585,071 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the U.S. but still estimates that it has only about 4% U.S. market share of vehicles 0-10 years old in 2022. It seeks over 5% share by the end of calendar 2025. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Executives
Enrique N Mayor-mora officer: SVP & CFO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Mark F Oneil director C/O CARMAX, INC., 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Pietro Satriano director C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP., 9399 W. HIGGINS RD., STE 100, ROSEMONT IL 60018
David W. Mccreight director C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC., 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Peter J Bensen director MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 2915 JORIE BOULEVARD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Robert J. Hombach director C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED, 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Darren C Newberry officer: SVP 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Charles Joseph Wilson officer: SVP 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Sona Chawla director N56 W17000 RIDGEWOOD DRIVE, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051
Diane L Cafritz officer: SVP & CHRO 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Jill A Livesay officer: VP, Controller & PAO CARMAX, INC., 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
John T Standley director
Alan B. Colberg director ASSURANT, INC., ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 41 FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Marcella Shinder director 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Jon G Daniels officer: SVP, CAF 12800 TUCKAHOE CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238