KXIN (Kaixin Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 98.54% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


KXIN Kaixin Holdings KXIN
22 GF Score
Price $4.40
GF Value $0.55
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Kaixin Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Kaixin Holdings KXIN -5.58% 22 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates KXIN with a GF Score™ of 22/100 and a GF Value™ of $0.55 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kaixin Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Kaixin Holdings  (NAS:KXIN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Kaixin Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


KXIN vs AZI, JZXN, EICCF: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, Kaixin Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Kaixin Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Kaixin Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Kaixin Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


KXIN
22GF Score
Kaixin Holdings KXIN
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Kaixin Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=4.21

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=98.54%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 98.54% mean?
Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 98.54% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Kaixin Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Kaixin Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54%. Overall, Kaixin Holdings has a GF Score™ of 22/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Kaixin Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to AZI and JZXN?
Kaixin Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 98.54% can be compared against companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Vehicles & Parts company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Vehicles & Parts industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Kaixin Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Kaixin Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.55, compared to a current price of $4.40 — trading 700% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54%. Kaixin Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 22/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Kaixin Holdings (KXIN), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 98.54% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Kaixin Holdings (KXIN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kaixin Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $4.40 is trading 700% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.55. GuruFocus considers Kaixin Holdings to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for KXIN:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 98.54%
  • GF Value™: $0.55 vs. price of $4.40 (700% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 22/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the KXIN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Kaixin Holdings Business Description

Address 198 Qidi Road, Unit B2-303-137, Unit B2-303-137, Beigan Community, Xiaoshan District, Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, CHN
Kaixin Holdings is an auto dealership company mainly engaged in the sale of domestic and imported automobiles in China. The company provides new and used car buyers in China with access to a wide selection of used vehicles across its network of dealerships, with a focus on premium brands such as Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Land Rover, and Porsche. The company generates revenue from automobile sales and related services.
22GF Score

Get the complete analysis for KXIN

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$4.40
Price
$0.55
GF Value