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Cheesecake Factory Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.37% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Cheesecake Factory's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.37%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Cheesecake Factory's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cheesecake Factory Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Cheesecake Factory's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cheesecake Factory's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Cheesecake Factory Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.60

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.37%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Cheesecake Factory  (NAS:CAKE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Cheesecake Factory Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Cheesecake Factory Business Description

Cheesecake Factory logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants NAICS : 722511 SIC : 5812
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
26901 Malibu Hills Road, Calabasas Hills, CA, USA, 91301
Cheesecake Factory owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary. The company's international presence, in the Middle East and Mexico, is through licensing agreements with third parties. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for sale in its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The company has four operating business segments: The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia, other FRC, and others. Most of the company's revenue comes from The Cheesecake Factory restaurants segment.
Executives
Meyer Janice L. director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS CA 91301
Ginsberg Paul D. director C/O ROARK CAPITAL 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500 ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Cake Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 2500 ATLANTA GA 30309
Ames Edie A director C/O MORTONS RESTATURANT GROUP, INC. 325 LASALLE STREET, SUITE 500 CHICAGO IL 60610
Overton David director, officer: Chairman and C.E.O. PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: OVERTON DAVID a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Slomann Cheryl officer: Principal Accounting Officer 6450 VIA REAL CURPINTERIA CA 93013
Pittaway David Bruce director 150 E 58TH ST STE 3700 NEW YORK NY 10155
Clark Matthew Eliot officer: Exec VP, CFO 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Gordon David M officer: President C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Carango Keith officer: President (Subsidiary) 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
May Scarlett officer: EVP, General Counsel 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Mindel Laurence B director IL FORNAIO AMERICA CORP 770 TAMAPAIS DR STE 400 CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Cappello Alexander L director C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Zurzolo Debby R officer: Exec VP, Gen Counsel & Secy PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ZURZOLO DEBBY R a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Byfuglin Max S officer: President (Subsidiary) PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BYFUGLIN MAX S a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Cheesecake Factory Headlines

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