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ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.44

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


ICF International  (NAS:ICFI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


ICF International Business Description

ICF International logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541611 SIC : 8742
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA, USA, 22031
ICF International Inc provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. Its services primarily support clients that operate in four key markets that include Energy, Environment, and Infrastructure, Health, Education, and Social Programs, Safety and Security and Consumer and Financial. The Company's major clients are United States federal government departments and agencies.
Executives
Crouther Marilyn C director 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Terreri Donald J officer: VP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Kesavan Sudhakar director, officer: Executive Chairman ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Van Handel Michael J director 5301 NORTH IRONWOOD ROAD MILWAUKEE WI 53217
Grise Cheryl W director NORTHEAST UTILITIES 107 SELDEN STREET BERLIN CT 06037
Datar Srikant M. director ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Schulte Peter M director 900 THIRD AVENUE 33RD FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022-4775
Mehl Randall director 8620 N DEAN CIR RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Wasson John director, officer: CEO & President ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Golinvaux Theresa D officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 20131
Morgan James C M officer: Chief of Business Operations 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Ostria Sergio J officer: Executive Vice President 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Welsh Bettina Garcia officer: Chief Financial Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Taylor Richard Dewayne officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Glover Ellen officer: Executive Vice President ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031

ICF International Headlines

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