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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Hagar hf (OISE:HAGA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Hagar hf Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
OISE:HAGA vs KR, SFM, ACI: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Hagar hf Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Hagar hf Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.26
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Hagar hf (OISE:HAGA) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Aug. 29, 2026.
Is Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Hagar hf's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Hagar hf has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to KR and SFM?
Hagar hf's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Retail - Defensive industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Retail - Defensive company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Retail - Defensive industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Hagar hf's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Hagar hf stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hagar hf (OISE:HAGA) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is kr88.70, compared to a current price of kr122.50 — trading 38.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Hagar hf's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Hagar hf (OISE:HAGA), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Aug. 29, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Hagar hf (OISE:HAGA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hagar hf stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of kr122.50 is trading 38.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of kr88.70.
GuruFocus considers Hagar hf to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for OISE:HAGA:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: kr88.70 vs. price of kr122.50 (38.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OISE:HAGA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Hagar hf is a retail company with operations in Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the Netherlands, mainly in the grocery and fuel markets. It operates grocery stores, Olis service stations, OB stations, warehouses, one production facility, one online store with packaged food, one supply store, and one specialty store. The group's core business in Iceland is in the grocery and related warehouse sectors, as well as fuel sales. In the Faroe Islands, it operates the SMS retail company, which operates, among other things, various grocery stores, restaurants, and specialty stores. In the Netherlands, Hagar operates one online store with alcohol. The group's operating segments are stores and warehouses in Iceland, which generate maximum revenue, stores and warehouses in the Faroe Islands, and Olis.
82GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OISE:HAGA
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