PPCCY (PICC Property and Casualty Co) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


PPCCY PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd PPCCY
71 GF Score
Price $46.22
GF Value $42.62
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is PICC Property and Casualty Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

PICC Property and Casualty Co PPCCY -5.09% 71 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates PPCCY with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of $42.62 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

PICC Property and Casualty Co  (OTCPK:PPCCY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

PICC Property and Casualty Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

PPCCY vs CB, PGR, TRV: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

PICC Property and Casualty Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


PPCCY
71GF Score
PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd PPCCY
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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PICC Property and Casualty Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.20

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
PICC Property and Casualty Co (PPCCY) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PICC Property and Casualty Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, PICC Property and Casualty Co has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CB and PGR?
PICC Property and Casualty Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Insurance industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Insurance company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PICC Property and Casualty Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PICC Property and Casualty Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PICC Property and Casualty Co (PPCCY) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $42.62, compared to a current price of $46.22 — trading 8.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. PICC Property and Casualty Co's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PICC Property and Casualty Co (PPCCY), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is PICC Property and Casualty Co (PPCCY) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PICC Property and Casualty Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $46.22 is trading 8.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $42.62. GuruFocus considers PICC Property and Casualty Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for PPCCY:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
  • GF Value™: $42.62 vs. price of $46.22 (8.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the PPCCY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

PICC Property and Casualty Co Business Description

Other Exchanges 02328:Hong KongPJC:Germany
Address Tower 2, No. 2 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100022
PICC P&C is headquartered in Beijing. The company is China's largest nonlife insurer, commanding nearly 33% domestic market share. Founded by the People's Bank of China in 1949, PICC P&C operates as the flagship subsidiary of PICC Group—a state-owned insurance holding company that retains a 69% equity stake. The company underwrites a comprehensive suite of nonlife insurance products spanning auto, commercial property, liability, credit and surety, accident and health, energy and aerospace, and agricultural lines.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for PPCCY

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$46.22
Price
$42.62
GF Value