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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, comScore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.58%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, comScore's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, comScore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where comScore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -5.14 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.58% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
comScore (NAS:SCOR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of comScore's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Stephen Bagdasarian | officer: Chief Commercial Officer | 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, STE. 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
Mary Margaret Curry | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | C/O COMSCORE, INC., 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
Brian J Wendling | director | 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
Jonathan Carpenter | officer: Chief Financial Officer | C/O COMSCORE, INC., 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE STE. 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
Martin Edward Patterson | director | 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112-7009 |
Liberty Broadband Corp | director, 10 percent owner | 12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
William Paul Livek | director, officer: President & Exec Vice Chairman | P O BOX 18888, PORTLAND OR 97218 |
David Algranati | officer: Chief Innovation Officer | 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
Leslie Gillin | director | C/O MOTIVA USA, LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958 |
Cerberus Capital Management, L.p. | director, 10 percent owner | 875 THIRD AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Christopher T Wilson | officer: Chief Revenue Officer | 7700 NE AMBASSADOR PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97220 |
Nana Banerjee | director | C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310 |
Brent David Rosenthal | director | C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
Irwin Gotlieb | director | 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190 |
Itzhak Fisher | director | 767 FIFTH AVE STE 4300, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
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