SCOR (comScore) Predictability Rank

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What is comScore Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

comScore Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

comScore Predictability Rank Related Terms

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comScore Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » comScore Inc (NAS:SCOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11950 Democracy Drive, Suite 600, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.comscore.com

comScore Inc is a United States-based information and analytics company that measures advertising, content, and the consumer audiences of each across media platforms. The platforms it measures include televisions, mobile devices, computers, tablets, CTV devices, and movie theaters. The company generates almost all its revenue from the United States, followed by Europe, Latin America, Canada, and other regions. It provides solutions for the automotive, digital media, financial services, pharmaceutical, retail, technology, travel, and other industries.

Executives

Stephen Bagdasarian	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, STE. 600, RESTON VA 20190
Mary Margaret Curry	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O COMSCORE, INC., 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190
Brian J Wendling	director	12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Jonathan Carpenter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COMSCORE, INC., 11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE STE. 600, RESTON VA 20190
Martin Edward Patterson	director	12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112-7009
Liberty Broadband Corp	director, 10 percent owner	12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
William Paul Livek	director, officer: President & Exec Vice Chairman	P O BOX 18888, PORTLAND OR 97218
David Algranati	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190
Leslie Gillin	director	C/O MOTIVA USA, LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Cerberus Capital Management, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	875 THIRD AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher T Wilson	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	7700 NE AMBASSADOR PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97220
Nana Banerjee	director	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Brent David Rosenthal	director	C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Irwin Gotlieb	director	11950 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20190
Itzhak Fisher	director	767 FIFTH AVE STE 4300, NEW YORK NY 10153