Nippon Insure Co (TSE:5843) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


TSE:5843 Nippon Insure Co Ltd TSE:5843
34 GF Score
Price 円2,155.00
GF Value 円1,533.27
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
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What is Nippon Insure Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Nippon Insure Co TSE:5843 -0.69% 34 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:5843 with a GF Score™ of 34/100 and a GF Value™ of 円1,533.27 (Significantly Overvalued).

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Nippon Insure Co  (TSE:5843) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Nippon Insure Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:5843 vs BRK.A, AIG, HIG: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Insurance - Diversified subindustry, Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Nippon Insure Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:5843
34GF Score
Nippon Insure Co Ltd TSE:5843
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Nippon Insure Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.86

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
Nippon Insure Co (TSE:5843) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Nippon Insure Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, Nippon Insure Co has a GF Score™ of 34/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BRK.A and AIG?
Nippon Insure Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Insurance industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Insurance company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Nippon Insure Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Nippon Insure Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nippon Insure Co (TSE:5843) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円1,533.27, compared to a current price of 円2,155.00 — trading 40.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Nippon Insure Co's overall GF Score™ is 34/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Nippon Insure Co (TSE:5843), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Nippon Insure Co (TSE:5843) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nippon Insure Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円2,155.00 is trading 40.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円1,533.27. GuruFocus considers Nippon Insure Co to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:5843:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
  • GF Value™: 円1,533.27 vs. price of 円2,155.00 (40.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 34/100

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:5843 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Nippon Insure Co Business Description

Address 2-14-2 Tenjin, Fukuoka Shoken Building, 6th floor, Chuo-ku, Fukuoka, JPN, 810-0001
Nippon Insure Co Ltd is a guarantee company based in Fukuoka that has expanded not only to the real estate industry but also to the nursing care and medical fields. The company provides rent liability guarantees, nursing care debt guarantees, hospitalization fee liability guarantees, fitness businesses, and laundry businesses.
34GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:5843

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円2,155.00
Price
円1,533.27
GF Value