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Value Line (NAS:VALU) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.08% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Value Line's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges subindustry, Value Line's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Value Line Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Value Line's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Value Line's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Value Line Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.19

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.08%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Value Line  (NAS:VALU) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Value Line Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Value Line's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Value Line (NAS:VALU) Business Description

Value Line logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
551 Fifth Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10176-0001
Value Line Inc is a U.S based company. It produces investment periodicals based on underlying research and making available copyright data, including ranking system and other information, to third parties under written agreements for use in third-party managed and marketed investment products and for other purposes. The company markets under well-known brands including Value Line, the Value Line logo, The Value Line Investment Survey, Smart Research, Smarter Investing and The Most Trusted Name in Investment Research. Its only operating segment being Publishing.
Executives
Glenn J. Muenzer director 357 HARVARD COURT, EAST MEADOW NY 11554
Howard A Brecher director, officer: Acting Chairman and Acting CEO VALUE LINE 220 E 42ND ST, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mary Bernstein director 220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Alfred R Fiore director 1 ANGORA ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
William Edward Reed director 12 KNORR STREET, NORWALK CT 06854
Stephen P Davis director 57 EAST 95TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10128
Thomas Sarkany director, officer: Secretary 220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Robert M. Perkins, director 220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Ruth O. Legon, director 220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Janet Eakman director 220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mitchell Eric Appel officer: CFO VALUE LINE INC, 220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edward J Shanahan director 220 EAST 42 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marianne B Asher director
Arnold Bernhard & Co Inc 10 percent owner 220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edgar A Buttner director C/O VALUE LINE, 220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017

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